How to improve climate predictions? McGill researchers turn to 19th century letters
Models are an important way for scientists and decision-makers to understand how human influence is changing the climate.
19th-Century Missionary Records Used to Improve Climate Models for Africa
Researchers, led by a team from McGill University, have developed a method to enhance climate models for Africa by incorporating data from 19th-century missionary records. This effort aims to address the historical data gaps that have contributed to uncertainties in projecting the impacts of global warming on the continent.
Climate models rely on historical data, such as temperature and precipitation, to validate and refine their predictions. However, the scarcity of region-specific historical data and the limited number of weather stations in Africa compared to other regions have hindered accurate projections.
Challenges in Climate Data for Africa
"Africa's absence from the underlying data makes deploying these projections uncomfortable, as it partly represents the continent's marginalization from global scientific discourse during and after colonialism," a recent study in Climate of the Past noted.
To address this issue, historian Philip Gooding turned to the writings of 19th-century Christian missionaries in Tanzania. Although these records are problematic, given their colonial origins and potential biases, they provide rare region-specific data missing from current models.
Gooding explained, "The hope moving forward is that we've created a better baseline on which global warming scenarios for Tanzania can now be projected."
Efforts to Fill Data Gaps
Gooding and his team worked with climate scientists and data analysts to standardize the missionary records using a seven-point scale, categorizing accounts from normal conditions to severe drought or rainfall. The integration of this data offers a more comprehensive historical picture of the region's climate.
East Africa is among the regions most vulnerable to climate change yet remains under-researched. Limited weather radar coverage has compounded the challenges of predicting and preparing for extreme weather. Africa, with a comparable population to Europe and the U.S., has only 37 weather radar stations, compared to 636 in the latter regions.
Skepticism and Future Directions
While some researchers, such as Obed Ogega of the African Academy of Sciences, commend the effort, they remain cautious about relying on missionary records. "Until I'm certain the source is credible and fit for purpose, I’ll be hesitant to use it," Ogega said, emphasizing the risks of policy decisions based on flawed data.
He suggested focusing on natural records, like lake sediment or tree rings, to better understand Tanzania's historical climate. However, he acknowledged the potential of the research to inspire further study. "Maybe this is a resource we haven’t thought about enough, but I wouldn’t say it’s conclusive enough to integrate into climate modelling yet," he said.
Gooding echoed this cautious optimism, acknowledging the flaws in both the missionary records and climate models. However, he argued that combining them enhances their value.
The study also highlights the need to incorporate oral traditions and other local evidence into historical climate reconstructions, potentially offering a more nuanced understanding of Africa’s climate history.
