Trump has threatened Canada in all sorts of ways. What does he really want?

Donald Trump’s increasingly forceful rhetoric regarding Canada is raising concerns about potential repercussions for the country and prompting questions about how serious his stance really is.

While Trump has already threatened to damage Canada’s economy by imposing tariffs upon returning to the White House, his comments on Tuesday escalated further as he stated his intention to use "economic force" to potentially eliminate the border between the two nations.

Understanding Trump’s statements can be difficult, given his tendency to speak in bold terms. However, with the record of his first presidential term and the facts of U.S.-Canada trade, some conclusions can be drawn.

"It's very hard to know when he's serious about anything, but he does follow through with a lot of his most outrageous statements," said Matthew Lebo, a political science professor at Western University in Ontario.

A useful approach is to take Trump’s words seriously, but not always literally, as advised by a journalist who closely followed his campaign in 2016.

Trump has become more direct about the tariffs on Canada, which he previously linked to improving border security. During his news conference on Tuesday, he said, "We're going to put very serious tariffs on Mexico and Canada." The Canadian government's $1.2-billion border security plan, presented to Trump's transition team last month, does not seem to have satisfied the president-elect.

Canadian officials are concerned that Trump may already be planning tariffs on certain Canadian exports, with plans for retaliatory tariffs on hundreds of American-made products. Although it is unlikely that Trump would impose tariffs on crude oil, as this would likely raise U.S. gas prices, other goods could be subject to such levies.

Trump’s association of tariffs with border security provides the legal grounds for such a move. While Congress generally holds the power to impose tariffs, the president can do so if he declares a national economic emergency, a step he threatened to take with Mexico in 2019.

Trump and his commerce secretary nominee, Howard Lutnick, view tariffs as a potential revenue source for the U.S. Treasury, which could help finance tax cuts, despite evidence that such a move would harm more Americans than it would help.

At his news conference, Trump dismissed the possibility of military action against Canada, specifically when asked about annexing the country. He stated, “No, [I would use] economic force.”

This is particularly significant because trade with the U.S. matters much more to Canada than it does to the U.S. In 2023, the U.S. accounted for 77% of Canada’s exports, while Canada represented just 17% of U.S. exports.

Some see Trump’s tariff threats as part of a strategy to gain leverage in renegotiating the 2018 trade deal with Canada and Mexico, with the belief that Trump perceives Canada as politically weak, given the imminent departure of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party’s struggles.

Trump has also expressed frustration with the trade deficit with Canada, inaccurately portraying it as the U.S. subsidizing Canada. He has exaggerated the deficit, which stood at $68 billion in 2023. "We’re spending hundreds of billions a year to take care of Canada," Trump said, adding that the U.S. is providing significant subsidies, including military support.

Trump’s remarks about Canada’s reliance on the U.S. military also have some basis. Canada currently spends about 1.3% of GDP on defense, below the NATO target of 2%. To meet this target, Canada would need to spend an additional $21 billion on defense.

During his news conference, Trump also questioned Canada’s need for imports such as automobiles, lumber, and dairy products from the U.S., raising concerns for Canadian industries in these sectors.

To counteract Trump’s stance, Canada must present clear, proactive strategies that demonstrate how free trade benefits both nations. “We need proactive proposals that say, ‘Here’s what we’re doing on security, here’s what we’re doing on energy, here’s what we’re doing on critical minerals and advanced manufacturing,’” said Laura Dawson of the Future Borders Coalition.

Trump has also made comments about the possibility of Canada becoming part of the U.S., referring to the idea of eliminating the border. While this is unlikely to happen, the increasing rhetoric has led some to question whether there is more substance behind Trump’s words than previously thought.

Some analysts argue that Trump’s musings about Canada’s future as the 51st state are intended as distractions from the president-elect’s inability to fulfill his economic promises. It is widely believed that Canada’s sovereignty will not be voluntarily surrendered, unless the country faces economic collapse due to sustained "economic force" that leads to widespread social unrest, pushing Canadians toward the idea of joining the U.S.