What will the post-Trudeau period be like?

Justin Trudeau announced on Monday that he will step down as Canada’s prime minister, but only after the Liberal Party selects a new leader. In the interim, Parliament will be prorogued until March 24, and members of the House of Commons will not return to Ottawa.

This decision comes amid a political crisis in Ottawa, with federal elections approaching and significant challenges in international relations. The return of Donald Trump to the White House, with plans to impose tariffs detrimental to Canadian industries, adds further complexity.

Despite the announcement, Canada’s current cabinet remains unchanged for now. Trudeau will continue to serve as the country’s leader and manage relations with the United States, including Trump’s inauguration on January 20.

"The government elected to protect Canadians and their interests in a very complex world will continue this work with a singular focus and emphasis on what is in the interests of Canadians," Trudeau stated on Monday.

The Liberal Party will now begin the process of selecting its 24th leader, who will take over as prime minister and hold office until the next general election. However, ministers will not be accountable to Parliament until its reopening in late March.

Timeline for Leadership Selection

Liberal Party officials are expected to decide this week on the timeline for members to vote for Trudeau’s successor. Party rules require that members be informed of the voting process at least 27 days in advance.

Trudeau emphasized that his successor would be chosen through a “rigorous and competitive national process” in adherence to the party's constitution. This race must conclude before March 24, when Parliament resumes.

Leadership Election Process

Unlike some political parties, the Liberal Party does not appoint interim leaders immediately. Instead, members will vote to select the next leader and prime minister through a secret ballot, supervised by a designated committee.

Membership in the Liberal Party is free, as per its constitution. Anyone meeting the party’s criteria can register as a member to participate in the vote.

The party’s president, Sachit Mehra, has already initiated steps to organize the leadership race. The National Council, led by Mehra, will outline the rules for the election this week.

Potential Successors

Even before Trudeau’s official announcement, discussions about potential successors were underway.

Mark Carney, former governor of the Bank of Canada, is a prominent name. Reports suggest he has begun reaching out to Liberal MPs to prepare his leadership bid.

Chrystia Freeland, the former finance minister who left the cabinet in December, is also seen as a strong contender. Polls indicate Freeland has significant support, often surpassing other potential candidates.

Other names include Dominic LeBlanc, Trudeau’s longtime ally and current finance minister, as well as ministers Anita Anand, Mélanie Joly, and François-Philippe Champagne. Former British Columbia Premier Christy Clark has also expressed interest, praising Trudeau’s tenure and signaling her readiness to enter the race.

Upcoming Federal Elections

The next federal election could occur as early as this spring. When Parliament reconvenes on March 24, the government will deliver a Speech from the Throne.

Opposition parties, holding a majority in Parliament, will have the chance to vote on this speech, which doubles as a vote of confidence. If the government loses, elections will follow.

New Democratic Party leader Jagmeet Singh has rejected cooperation with any new Liberal leader, vowing to align with the Bloc Québécois and Conservatives to force an election at the earliest opportunity. Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet described Canada as being in “months of pre-election.”